I could write a detailed recap of this one, or I could just say that if you read the pre-game post directly below this one and then look at a box score from this game, you'll know that what I said had to happen for the Pirates to win this game and what happened on the field tonight are completely opposite of each other.
I know Correia is gonna (rightly) get raked for this game but the Orioles are good and he's a #5 starter. This kind of stuff is what to expect from a #5 starter, not that I wouldn't rather Owens or Locke taking his turn. I'm more upset with Tabata. If you caught the game/repay, that bonehead play in the 9th had Hurdle shaking his head and you could tell Walk was even disgusted. Now I realize anybody who marries a crazy chick 15 years older than him because she fakes being pregnant isn't a genius to begin with but between that play and several other things he's done this season, he's gotta be the DUMBEST ball player I've seen since the glory days of Ian Snell. What in the hell in wrong with him??
Pirates Prospects had a good take on Correia's efforts so far this year; beside the very lucky BABIP DoobyDoobyDoo mentioned, he's also got a much better than average strand rate, and it's doubtful that the combination can be maintained over the course of a whole season. If the Pirates end up being contenders, he's not good enough to help a contending team. If the Pirates fall out of the race, every start you give Correia is one less opportunity to see what Locke or Owens or Alderson can provide on the MLB level.
@azibuck @Andy Really? Correia only has 6+ IP with 2 ER or less 4 times this season, and only once since April. Even if you increase the ER to 3, he's only done it 6 times. 50% of the time he has an "average" start and the other 50% of the time he doesn't give the team a chance to win. He's also a ridiculous regression candidate. He's gotten extremely lucky to even put up mediocre numbers. Among qualified starters, he has the lowest K/9 in the National League, by over a full strikeout. He has a .248 BABIP against; league average is near .300. According to FanGraphs WAR, he has been worth -0.4 wins this season. Meanwhile, Owens is second in the IL in ERA (2.29) while Jeff Locke is 12th (3.27). Owens has a 54/11 K-BB ratio in 79IP and Locke has a sparkling 60-14 ratio in 66IP. These guys are better than Correia, no doubt about it.
@azibuck @DoobyDoobyDoo @Andy Seriously? Bottom line: the guy is terrible. This is just my boiling point, just like with Veras last year. I cringe when he pitches. Correia may have a "decent" start here or there, or "7 out of 12," but the bottom line is that we're too far in a hole to come back to win. He can eat innings all day, but when you're down, it usually doesn't matter. Say what you want, I think the guy sucks and I'm all for Owens. He can't be much worse.
@azibuck @DoobyDoobyDoo @Andy But at one point, Correia did get some strikeouts; in his early years, he would get 6.5-7.0 per nine innings, which isn't earth shaking, but isn't a red flag, either. Last year he sat at 4.5, and right now he's at 3.26/9--the latter being a figure that no pitcher in this era can be successful with. This is why the lack of strikeouts concern people.
@DoobyDoobyDoo @Andy Don't misunderstand me, I'd love to see Locke and Owens get a shot. I'm just railing against Correia-hate. 7/12 Game Scores above 50. Regarding luck and regression, he is what he is. Nothing in his peripherals will change that. When he spots his fastball and changes speeds, he gets ground balls and is efficient. When he doesn't, he gets hit hard. I won't shed a tear when he's gone, which I'm guessing will be soon. I just never understood the level of vitriol directed at him because (in a very basic sense) he doesn't strike guys out. Sites like WHYGAVS and their visitors will never appreciate a guy like Correia. And I really don't mean that as a dig at them or a compliment to Correia. I'm saying I understand it.
What I don't care for is "can we *DFA* him *already*", after he "ate" six innings and gave up 4 earned runs. It wasn't a good effort, but it also wasn't a shelling over less than 4 innings (which he's done before, I GET IT). Comments like that just strike me as irrational, as if he does this every time out when in fact he doesn't.
I'd like an upgrade from him too, and with the service time (super 2, such that it could still exist) issue about to be up, I'm sure we'll get a chance to upgrade with either Owens and/or Locke.