Spring training games start tomorrow, which means that we’re at an exciting but excruciating juncture of the off-season. It’s almost time for baseball to start and there are some things to watch during spring training games, but really what we’ve got now is a month of people fine-tuning before the real start of the season in April. For the Pirates’ part, there aren’t many things of importance at stake this spring. Their entire outfield is set, almost all of their starting infield is set, three-fifths of the rotation is set and the other two spots will be determined by injuries that shouldn’t have long-term consequences either way, not performances. That said, there are a few things of import going on this spring, so let’s talk about the things that I’m particularly interested in seeing shake out before the season begins.
1. Pedro Alvarez
This is one of those situations where I know we’re looking for something, but I have no idea what that something is, exactly. Spring training stats don’t mean anything, so a bad spring for Alvarez could be fine if he’s working on something and improving as March goes along. By the same token, a great spring for him could be meaningless if he’s feasting on Double-A fodder and just sticking balls high into the currents at McKechnie. I don’t know what I’m really looking for here, just something. To see him jump all over a first pitch fastball and destroy it. To see him keep his hands back on an 0-1 curveball and hit it 500 feet if its a hanger. Something. Anything.
2. The last two roster spots
This one will relate back to #1 and the team’s confidence in Alvarez. If we do some quick math, the club will probably open the season with five starters, seven relievers, three starting outfielders, two catchers, we know who three infield starters will be (Walker, Barmes, Jones), and we can probably put Alvarez into the fourth spot. Nate McLouth and Casey McGehee almost certainly have bench spots locked down, which brings us to 23 players. One of the final two spots will go to a utility player that will almost certainly be Yamaico Navarro, Chase d’Arnaud, or Josh Harrison. Harrison can’t play short, so it’ll probably be Navarro or d’Arnaud. I’m a little interested to see Navarro play, just to be able to take stock of what the Pirates have. If he gets a spot over d’Arnaud, is it because the Pirates want d’Arnaud to get regular time in Triple-A or because they don’t think he’s a big league player? Who gets the last roster spot? Do the Pirates carry five outfielders or will they stick with four because Garrett Jones is on the roster? Who would the fifth outfielder even be at this point, Brandon Boggs? If Nick Evans or Matt Hague make the roster with McGehee and Alvarez, should we read that as a low level of confidence in Alvarez? Obviously we won’t see everything that goes into these decisions, but at least the spring training performances and how the Pirates are using these players should let us take some stock into what the team is thinking and how they’re evaluating their own players.
3. The right-handed relief logjam
If the Pirates are taking seven relievers north with them, we can be certain that two will be lefties (Tony Watson and Moskos/Slaten/maybe Jo-Jo Reyes). Joel Hanrahan is a lock for one of the five right-handed spots and Jason Grilli and Chris Resop are awfully good bets, too. With AJ Burnett likely not coming back until March, we can put Kevin Correia into a rotation spot, which means that either Brad Lincoln or Dan McCutchen will take a long relief spot. That leaves one bullpen spot for Evan Meek, Chris Leroux, and Jared Hughes. Is Meek healthy enough to make the team? Does Chris Leroux have a leg up because he’s out of options? Will the club use Watson or Leroux or maybe even Hughes, all of whom started in the minors or in winter ball, as the long relief and let McCutchen go? That last idea makes sense to me, and at this point I think I’d take Leroux and Hughes (who I like quite a bit and see as the dark horse to win the “Who will replace Joel Hanrahan after he’s traded to the Red Sox on July 31st” sweepstakes that will unofficially be taking place this season) north and leave Meek behind. It’s also possible that Burnett’s injury and the state of Morton’s recovery might make the Pirates put together a bullpen that keeps as many arms in-house as possible. They’d have to DFA McCutchen and risk losing him if he doesn’t make the team, so they might wait until Burnett and Morton are healthy to do something like that.
4. Are we seriously going to be doing this Kevin Correia thing again?
All I’m saying is that if I were making the decisions, I’d be very seriously considering eating Correia’s salary and putting Lincoln in the rotation until everyone’s healthy. It’s possible we end up with both guys in the rotation anyway if Morton’s not ready to go on Day 1, but yeah, I’m not sure how long I’d be sticking with Correia if he looks the same this spring as he did last July.
