Game 40: Pirates 2 Nationals 1

Written by Pat Lackey on .

After beating the Nationals in a 12-7 shootout, then beating them in a weird extra inning game that they certainly deserved to lose, the Pirates completed the sweep picked up their third straight win against the Nats with a 2-1 win in a pitcher's duel last night. Paul Maholm threw six strong innings and the bullpen kept off the board long enough to ensure that their bullpen would betray them again.

In the end, a sweep against the Nationals has to be taken with a grain of salt, but it's still a sweep. People like to play the "if we had beaten the Brewers ..." game, but that's not actually a whole lot different than saying, "If we lost to the Nationals ..." You play the teams on your schedule, and that's the end of it.

The real test

Written by Pat Lackey on .

So we've spent two games proving what we already know: that the Nationals are not a very good baseball team. The real question now; can the Pirates sweep a series that the "should" sweep? A win tonight brings the Bucs tantalizingly close to that magical .500 mark. Is this something that we as fans want? For the Pirates to play with our hearts again?

Paul Maholm and John Lannan are your starters tonight. Two of Maholm's last three starts have ended in hard luck losses for the Pirates, though he wasn't saddled with the loss in either of them (he was terrible in the start sandwiched between them; he did get the loss for that one). In fact, we've lost Maholm's last four starts. Tonight seems like a good night to bring an end to that trend.

WHYGAVS Night 2009

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OK, let's make this concrete. WHYGAVS Night 2009 will be on Friday, June 12th as the Pirates play the Tigers. Like last year, it's just easier if everyone's responsible for their own tickets. We chose a similar game (Friday night, interleague, bobblehead) for WHYGAVS Night last year and had no problem getting bleacher general admission tickets for everyone that showed up.

Last year we met at Firewaters (on Federal St.) around 6:00 before the game to hang out and have a few drinks before the ritual slaughter involving Jimmy Barthmaier and Scott Kazmir took place on the field and so I think I'm going to go ahead and say that's the plan again this year. As for t-shirts, I'm working on the design right now and when they're ready to go, I'll put up a post and ask for orders. We can also get into more details later, but I wanted to set a firm date so everyone's that interested can set their calendars.

Everyone that came last year had a lot of fun, so I'd certainly encourage anyone that's on the fence about it to try and stop by, whether you're a regular commenter, a reader, or just someone who wants to watch a Pirates' game with some other Pirate fans.

Game 39: Pirates 8 Nationals 5

Written by Pat Lackey on .

Yesterday afternoon, I got an e-mail from my dad. It read, in part:

It's 5-19-09, and what are the Bucs, 17-21?  A year ago on this date the Bucs were 21-23.  And yet, why does it seem that I and many others feel like this year's version is better than last year's version?  Optical illusion?  Did we drink the Kool-Aid?  Have we been snowed?

I thought about that a bit, and though I agree with the sentiment that these Pirates are better than last year's, I was unable to adequately verbalize a reason and actually, I still haven't responded (though I suppose this post counts). I just have a feeling that this team is different. I don't think they're a playoff team or a .500 team, but I do think they're different, if that makes sense. They're not necessarily good, but for the first time in a long time, I feel like maybe they're at least headed in the direction of something good.

This win is a perfect example. It had all the debilitating hallmarks of a bad Pirate loss. Early lead? Check. Complete offensive disappearance? Check. Late comeback by the terrible opponent? Check. Inevitable feeling of doom while the other team rallied in the bottom of the ninth? Check. And then somehow, Tom Gorzelanny, suddenly recast as a reliever, came it and got a huge strikeout of Willie Harris to end the Nats' rally in the ninth. And sure, it was just Willie Harris, but did anyone see them getting out of that jam? And after that big strikeout, the offense that had been completely dormant (as in no hits and only one base runner) since Andy LaRoche's home run in the third inning suddenly came alive for three runs in the top of the tenth. And sure, it was just the Nationals bullpen, but who saw that rally coming?

This is what occaissionaly drives me insane about baseball. This game was one that, empirically, the Pirates should've won easily, especially after the 5-0 lead in the third inning. And then they blew that easy win to smithereens, deserved to lose the game, managed to not lose only because the Nationals are terrible, scored the winning runs against an awful bullpen, and here I am feeling like the accomplished something with this win. My rational and objective brain is screaming, "It's just the Nationals! None of this means anything because they're so awful!" and my subjective Pirate fan heart that wants to believe in anything at all is yelling back, "No hits for six innings! Nats had the winning run on third base in the ninth! We still scraped out a win!" Who knew being a Pirate fan could be so complicated?

Nyjer's back

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Nyjer Morgan's back for the Bucs tonight and batting leadoff, so the scorching-hot Delwyn Young is pushed to the bench. Jeff Karstens gets the start for the Pirates against Shairon Martis, the guy that threw a no-hitter for the Dutch in the first World Baseball Classic. There's not a lot else to write home about in this one, but Karstens has pitched pretty well his last two times out and gotten very little offensive/bullpen support. Now that he's pitching against a bad team, he'll probably bomb and give up ten runs in four innings.

OK, he's jinxed now, isn't he?

On Miguel Angel Sano and Latin America in general

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There's been a lot made lately of DK's story in the PG last week about 16-year-old Dominican super-prospect Miguel Angel Sano and the Pirates' chances of signing him. The dollar figures being thrown around with Sano's name are staggering. It seems likely that Sano's signing bonus could top $4 million and people are wondering whether (or maybe more accurately, how) a 16-year-old is worth that kind of money.

There are a few things to remember that aren't generally mentioned in this sort of discussion. The first is that Sano is a free agent. He wouldn't be worth $4 million as a draft pick, but then, Pedro Alvarez would've been worth far more than his $6 million tab if we'd signed him as a free agent last year. Much of Latin American scouting is trying to find kids that other teams aren't finding. On the open market, prices are always going to get driven upwards.

Re-read some of DK's stories about Rene Gayo's operation in the Dominican and start extrapolating. How many players does he see in a year? How many does he see that other teams see, too? How many players is only he interestedin? How many players does he have to bid against someone else for? With such sheer volume, it's easy to see why so many players are signed so cheaply. Remember, though, that even though the DR is approximately 1/30th the size of the United States (9.7 million vs. 306 million), around 10% of the players in Major League Baseball are Dominican right now. There is talent to be had and some of it can be found by casting a wide net. That's what was so insane about Littlefield's lack of Latin American operations; he didn't cast a net at all. A blind squirrell may find a nut, but not if it just stands there starving to death.

But again, you can't forget that all of these kids are free agents. While the vast majority are signed for a relatively low price because Gayo thinks he sees something even though that everyone else might not see and other teams might chose to spend their money on other kids that Gayo doesn't like, it's an open market and in some cases the bidding is going to get driven way up. This might seem obvious and I don't want to seem like I'm talking down to anyone, but that's what's going on with Sano. The Pirates didn't find some kid in a sandlot in the Dominican and consider offering him a $4 million signing bonus. The bidding is being pushed so high because everyone is interested.

So is he worth that money? There are a lot of things to be considered. First off, some pointy-haired bloggers would have you believe that there's no real way to evaluate talent in a 16-year-old. It's certainly not easy to project a 16-year-old, but I'll make the same point that I made when talking about the draft last week; if talent and talent development were truly random, then every team that scouts the Dominican would find the same amount of talent and have the same level of success. This would imply the only difference between good teams and bad teams is the ability to keep talent in town, which boils down to money. We know this isn't true; some small market teams succeed where other's fail. Some big market teams fail where others succeed. The difference between good organizations and bad organizations isn't money; it's talent evaluation and talent development.

We can go back to the chicken/egg argument of identifying talent vs. developing it, but I'm sure the Pirates would tell you that part of the value of Sano is that he's sixteen. Don't you think they would've loved to get their hands on Tanner Scheppers before Fresno State's coach ran him into the ground? The Pirates get to control every facet of this kid's development and don't have to worry about a high school coach or college coach more worried about personal glory stepping in the way of it. Sure, 16 is young, but the Rays gave $6 million to Tim Beckham and he was just two years older. That can be a lifetime in prospect years, but we scout juniors in high school in the States. It's young, but is it too young? I'm not sure.

In recent Pirate history, $4 million is one year of Joe Randa. It's three months of Jeromy Burnitz. It's two years of Ramon Vazquez. It's half of Yoslan Herrera's signing bonus. Even if Sano never comes close to Pittsburgh, $4 million is better spent on him than on anything we used to spend it on. And if we're spending that kind of money in the region, we're making a name for ourselves. Sign with the Pirates! Maybe they can't offer you the best contract, but they have Miguel Sano! They have a beautiful facility! This team is serious!

If you trust that Neal Huntington and Rene Gayo have done their jobs and that Kyle Stark will do his, Miguel Angel Sano is worth $4 million.

Game 38: Pirates 12 Nationals 7

Written by Pat Lackey on .

I didn't see much (read: any, because of the stupid MLB-induced blackout and the hockey game) of this one, but I'm not sure there's much to say. When you're facing a guy making his (for all itents and purposes) big league debut and the Nationals bullpen is backing him up, you should score 12 runs. Do I understand how the Pirates scored 12 runs on 12 hits tonight when less than a week ago, they scored 1 run on 12 hits? No, I don't, but that's the way the ball bounces sometimes. Plus, we should probably always win when Jack Wilson gets four hits.

Whatever the case, it's nice to see the offense bail the rotation out for the second night in a row, even if it was in a game that Kip Wells was involved in. Since that ugly losing streak ended, the Bucs are 5-2 and they're undefeated in games that Tom Gorzelanny has pitched in this year. Surely this is a trend that can continue, right?

The battle at the bottom

Written by Pat Lackey on .

It seems like I'm starting these posts off with a transaction note every single day now. Today the Bucs claimed Steven Jackson from the Yankees and released Jimmy Barthmaier to make room on the 40-man. Jackson's old for his level, but putting up some great numbers in AAA right now and may be able to provide some bullpen help in the near-to-immediate future.

The Bucs go to DC tonight to face Ross Detwiler in his 2009 debut (he pitched one inning in relief in 2007) and first big league start. Detwiler was the Nats' first pick in 2007 and is a great prospect, but his numbers in AA this year aren't overwhelmingly great. If MLB's arcane blackout policy wasn't preventing me from seeing this epic battle between bad baseball teams, I'd be interested to see how the Bucs handle Detwiler. He's got good strikeout numbers, but he's seemingly been very hittable in the minors. Without a book on him, the Pirates could be an ideal team for an impressive debut. Then again, they've been hitting pretty well of late and if they can get runners on base early, it might be a long night for the kid.

The Bucs send Ross Ohlendorf to the mound and will be without Nyjer Morgan for one more night. That leaves them with the lineup that scored ten runs in an inning yesterday, so it's hard to complain. What's not hard to complain about? The fact that the Nats are blacked out on Extra Innings in Chapel Hill (4 1/2 hours from DC), even though they're not on the local cable packages. And the Braves, who's games we get a few times a week, aren't blacked out. Someone, please do something about this blackout policy soon.

Links and things

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tailgreat

I was recently approached by the friend of a friend about getting word out about Gene's 5th Semi-Annual TailGREAT, which is raising money to benefit United Cerebal Palsy. The flyer with all of the information is above, but if you have any questions please contact Adam: AdamCaus --at-- gmail --dot-- com.

DK indicated yesterday that Gorzo's promotion was likely a one-day thing.

There are some differing opinions on Jim Tracy from the beat writers. John Perrotto wrote this on Thursday and DK posted this on Sunday.

If you have Twitter, you should be following @pirates_fg, which constantly updates with win probabilities during the game. Seriously one of the coolest uses of Twitter I've ever seen.

Remember, our bullpen is bad, but Kip Wells isn't in it.

EDITED TO ADD ONE MORE: Joe Kerrigan e-mailed Keith Olbermann to clarify Matt Capps' eyepatch and it was exactly what I thought it was; an attempt to keep Capps from flying too far open on the left side by making sure he could only see out of the right eye.

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