Nyjer's back

Written by Pat Lackey on .

Nyjer Morgan's back for the Bucs tonight and batting leadoff, so the scorching-hot Delwyn Young is pushed to the bench. Jeff Karstens gets the start for the Pirates against Shairon Martis, the guy that threw a no-hitter for the Dutch in the first World Baseball Classic. There's not a lot else to write home about in this one, but Karstens has pitched pretty well his last two times out and gotten very little offensive/bullpen support. Now that he's pitching against a bad team, he'll probably bomb and give up ten runs in four innings.

OK, he's jinxed now, isn't he?

On Miguel Angel Sano and Latin America in general

Written by Pat Lackey on .

There's been a lot made lately of DK's story in the PG last week about 16-year-old Dominican super-prospect Miguel Angel Sano and the Pirates' chances of signing him. The dollar figures being thrown around with Sano's name are staggering. It seems likely that Sano's signing bonus could top $4 million and people are wondering whether (or maybe more accurately, how) a 16-year-old is worth that kind of money.

There are a few things to remember that aren't generally mentioned in this sort of discussion. The first is that Sano is a free agent. He wouldn't be worth $4 million as a draft pick, but then, Pedro Alvarez would've been worth far more than his $6 million tab if we'd signed him as a free agent last year. Much of Latin American scouting is trying to find kids that other teams aren't finding. On the open market, prices are always going to get driven upwards.

Re-read some of DK's stories about Rene Gayo's operation in the Dominican and start extrapolating. How many players does he see in a year? How many does he see that other teams see, too? How many players is only he interestedin? How many players does he have to bid against someone else for? With such sheer volume, it's easy to see why so many players are signed so cheaply. Remember, though, that even though the DR is approximately 1/30th the size of the United States (9.7 million vs. 306 million), around 10% of the players in Major League Baseball are Dominican right now. There is talent to be had and some of it can be found by casting a wide net. That's what was so insane about Littlefield's lack of Latin American operations; he didn't cast a net at all. A blind squirrell may find a nut, but not if it just stands there starving to death.

But again, you can't forget that all of these kids are free agents. While the vast majority are signed for a relatively low price because Gayo thinks he sees something even though that everyone else might not see and other teams might chose to spend their money on other kids that Gayo doesn't like, it's an open market and in some cases the bidding is going to get driven way up. This might seem obvious and I don't want to seem like I'm talking down to anyone, but that's what's going on with Sano. The Pirates didn't find some kid in a sandlot in the Dominican and consider offering him a $4 million signing bonus. The bidding is being pushed so high because everyone is interested.

So is he worth that money? There are a lot of things to be considered. First off, some pointy-haired bloggers would have you believe that there's no real way to evaluate talent in a 16-year-old. It's certainly not easy to project a 16-year-old, but I'll make the same point that I made when talking about the draft last week; if talent and talent development were truly random, then every team that scouts the Dominican would find the same amount of talent and have the same level of success. This would imply the only difference between good teams and bad teams is the ability to keep talent in town, which boils down to money. We know this isn't true; some small market teams succeed where other's fail. Some big market teams fail where others succeed. The difference between good organizations and bad organizations isn't money; it's talent evaluation and talent development.

We can go back to the chicken/egg argument of identifying talent vs. developing it, but I'm sure the Pirates would tell you that part of the value of Sano is that he's sixteen. Don't you think they would've loved to get their hands on Tanner Scheppers before Fresno State's coach ran him into the ground? The Pirates get to control every facet of this kid's development and don't have to worry about a high school coach or college coach more worried about personal glory stepping in the way of it. Sure, 16 is young, but the Rays gave $6 million to Tim Beckham and he was just two years older. That can be a lifetime in prospect years, but we scout juniors in high school in the States. It's young, but is it too young? I'm not sure.

In recent Pirate history, $4 million is one year of Joe Randa. It's three months of Jeromy Burnitz. It's two years of Ramon Vazquez. It's half of Yoslan Herrera's signing bonus. Even if Sano never comes close to Pittsburgh, $4 million is better spent on him than on anything we used to spend it on. And if we're spending that kind of money in the region, we're making a name for ourselves. Sign with the Pirates! Maybe they can't offer you the best contract, but they have Miguel Sano! They have a beautiful facility! This team is serious!

If you trust that Neal Huntington and Rene Gayo have done their jobs and that Kyle Stark will do his, Miguel Angel Sano is worth $4 million.

Game 38: Pirates 12 Nationals 7

Written by Pat Lackey on .

I didn't see much (read: any, because of the stupid MLB-induced blackout and the hockey game) of this one, but I'm not sure there's much to say. When you're facing a guy making his (for all itents and purposes) big league debut and the Nationals bullpen is backing him up, you should score 12 runs. Do I understand how the Pirates scored 12 runs on 12 hits tonight when less than a week ago, they scored 1 run on 12 hits? No, I don't, but that's the way the ball bounces sometimes. Plus, we should probably always win when Jack Wilson gets four hits.

Whatever the case, it's nice to see the offense bail the rotation out for the second night in a row, even if it was in a game that Kip Wells was involved in. Since that ugly losing streak ended, the Bucs are 5-2 and they're undefeated in games that Tom Gorzelanny has pitched in this year. Surely this is a trend that can continue, right?

The battle at the bottom

Written by Pat Lackey on .

It seems like I'm starting these posts off with a transaction note every single day now. Today the Bucs claimed Steven Jackson from the Yankees and released Jimmy Barthmaier to make room on the 40-man. Jackson's old for his level, but putting up some great numbers in AAA right now and may be able to provide some bullpen help in the near-to-immediate future.

The Bucs go to DC tonight to face Ross Detwiler in his 2009 debut (he pitched one inning in relief in 2007) and first big league start. Detwiler was the Nats' first pick in 2007 and is a great prospect, but his numbers in AA this year aren't overwhelmingly great. If MLB's arcane blackout policy wasn't preventing me from seeing this epic battle between bad baseball teams, I'd be interested to see how the Bucs handle Detwiler. He's got good strikeout numbers, but he's seemingly been very hittable in the minors. Without a book on him, the Pirates could be an ideal team for an impressive debut. Then again, they've been hitting pretty well of late and if they can get runners on base early, it might be a long night for the kid.

The Bucs send Ross Ohlendorf to the mound and will be without Nyjer Morgan for one more night. That leaves them with the lineup that scored ten runs in an inning yesterday, so it's hard to complain. What's not hard to complain about? The fact that the Nats are blacked out on Extra Innings in Chapel Hill (4 1/2 hours from DC), even though they're not on the local cable packages. And the Braves, who's games we get a few times a week, aren't blacked out. Someone, please do something about this blackout policy soon.

Links and things

Written by Pat Lackey on .

tailgreat

I was recently approached by the friend of a friend about getting word out about Gene's 5th Semi-Annual TailGREAT, which is raising money to benefit United Cerebal Palsy. The flyer with all of the information is above, but if you have any questions please contact Adam: AdamCaus --at-- gmail --dot-- com.

DK indicated yesterday that Gorzo's promotion was likely a one-day thing.

There are some differing opinions on Jim Tracy from the beat writers. John Perrotto wrote this on Thursday and DK posted this on Sunday.

If you have Twitter, you should be following @pirates_fg, which constantly updates with win probabilities during the game. Seriously one of the coolest uses of Twitter I've ever seen.

Remember, our bullpen is bad, but Kip Wells isn't in it.

EDITED TO ADD ONE MORE: Joe Kerrigan e-mailed Keith Olbermann to clarify Matt Capps' eyepatch and it was exactly what I thought it was; an attempt to keep Capps from flying too far open on the left side by making sure he could only see out of the right eye.

Game 37: Pirates 11 Rockies 4

Written by Pat Lackey on .

Somewhere during the Pirates' endless seventh inning tonight, where the Pirates put the first 11 hitters of the inning on base, scored ten runs, and turned what seemed like a punchless 4-1 loss into a rousing 11-4 win, I thought to myself, "I've seen this before." The huge inning, the bullpen meltdown, the fielders flopping around like fish out of water, the great start wasted. The Rockies had somehow morphed into the Pirates.

It's amazing what a difference that one inning makes. Now the Pirates have won two series in a row and four out of six since ending their eight-game losing streak. Now, Zach Duke has as many wins as he did in 2008 and we can say that his start today was, "solid except for one inning" instead of something more negative. Thanks to one big inning, Nate McLouth, Andy LaRoche, Brandon Moss, and Delwyn Young are all on hot streaks.

Really? I'm just happy to be on the right side of one of these innings.

Going for the series win

Written by Pat Lackey on .

The Pirates announced this morning that Tyler Yates is being placed on the DL today and Tom Gorzelanny is being called up from AAA to provide some long relief out of the bullpen. Given the strain placed on the bullpen by last night's rain delay, there's a good chance we see him on the mound at some point this afternoon.

The only way that doesn't happen is another good outing by Zach Duke. His mound opponent is Ubaldo Jiminez, who seems like the sort of pitcher that kills the Pirates in recent years. He throws hard, has great stuff, and has control problems. Those don't matter as much against the Pirates, who make guys like Jorge de la Rosa look good.

Game 36: Pirates 7 Rockies 4

Written by Pat Lackey on .

When the weird, instant downpour hit PNC Park after Delwyn Young doubled in two runs in the second inning to put the Pirates ahead 4-3, I immediately thought two things. The first was, "Well, Snell didn't look great tonight, it might not hurt to get him out early." That was quickly followed by, "Crap, that means we have to get seven innings out of the bullpen." The Rockies' bullpen is also pretty scary to watch, but seven innings is a pretty tall task.

The dynamic in the bullpen is actually kind of weird right now. With Sean Burnett holding the Rockies to one run over three innings and coming out of the game with a 5-4 lead thanks to a Nate McLouth homer (on his bobblehead night), Evan Meek came in and I felt pretty good about him on the mound. Then Jesse Chavez came in and I wasn't worried at all (Chavez's inning was awesome, for the record). Then John Grabow, one of the two guys that I had any confidence at all in before the season started, came in and I worried a bit. Then Matt Capps came in and I was pretty terrified, even with a three-run lead.

Actually, I understand the desire to get Capps back out on the mound tonight. They said on the broadcast that he was at the ballpark and noon today and they showed some film of him working with Joe Kerrigan with his left eye covered. Steve Blass guessed that was because his left shoulder has been flying open early, leaving his right arm lagging behind the body and costing Capps some of his invaluable control. I'm sure that's a big part of the problem, but I'll add that the video stills (from 2007 and 2009) Blass was looking also made it look to me like Capps' front side flying open early was giving hitters a longer look at the ball coming out of Capps' hand, which is something that a pure fastball guy like Capps simply cannot afford. Whatever the case, Kerrigan's exercise seemed ingenuous to me. With his left eye covered, Capps has to bring his right side around in sync with the left side because if he doesn't, he can't see. Blass and Greg Brown had a good laugh about Capps throwing with one eye during the game and Mitch Williams (who I cannot stand) was acting like it was the craziest and stupidest thing he'd ever seen on the postgame wrap on the MLB Network, but really, these are the sorts of things that Joe Kerrigan does that I don't remember seeing any pitching coach do with the Pirates' staff before.

Did it make a difference tonight? That's hard to say. Capps walked the first batter and the next two both grounded sharply to Jack Wilson for a DP and a 6-3 ground out to end the game. The Rockies certainly weren't crushing the ball like they were on Friday. My gut feeling is that if Kerrigan didn't think Capps had made improvements during their afternoon bullpen session, he wouldn't have let Russell use him in the game.

One other thing I wanted to mention is Andy LaRoche's base running. Last night, I took him to task for not paying attention to where the throw from the outfield was headed and got caught trying to cruise into second, costing the Pirates' a scoring opportunity. Tonight, he made a great play to get from first to third on Jason Jaramillo's single to left, and that allowed him to score on Jack Wilson's sac fly in the next at-bat. That run was the last run the Pirates would score, and given the load placed on the bullpen tonight, the seventh run (and three-run lead) was really significant at this point. For everything that was said about LaRoche before this season started, it really seems to me like he's making a concerted effort to work on things he's not good at. Since April 16th, the first night of the year he recorded a hit, he's hitting .297/.373/.425 (that's by my count since B-Ref won't update his game log until the morning). Before the season, I think every one of use would've agreed that that sort of line from LaRoche would make us happy. Let's hope he keeps it up.

Cook and Snell

Written by Pat Lackey on .

First things first: ¡Romulo! Sanchez was traded to the Yankees today. I know, I was shocked too. They acquired the awesomely named Eric Hacker, who has some good minor league numbers but is always playing in levels he's way too old for because of career full of arm injuries. If this were anyone but ¡Romulo! it wouldn't even really be worth talking about. We're trading one high-risk guy for another. Somewhere, though, Dave Littlefield is shaking his fist and yelling, "I told you signing players from Latin America was a bad idea!"

On the baseball side of things, we've got Aaron Cook and Ian Snell tonight. Nyjer Morgan's out the rest of the weekend with a hamstring injury, so Brandon Moss is flipping to left field and Delwyn Young is manning right field and leading off tonight. Is he the stockiest leadoff man in history? I say maybe.

Thing to watch tonight: is Snell going to overthrow after watching the bullpen melt down and blow Maholm's lead last night? And a final note: this one's on the MLB Network tonight. I don't know what that means for local Pittsburghers and the FSN Pittsburgh broadcast, but for me it means I get to see the Buccos in HD for the first time this year.