Draft day always generates a lot of draft-specific traffic. If you're one of those people only interested in the draft, you can find two preview posts I did last week here and here. I have more about the draft coming this afternoon after today's game ends, so make sure to check back for that later today.

It figures that the annual Arts Fest Rainy Season would force us to briefly divert our attention from which teenager Neal Huntington is about to make a multi-millionaire, but here we are. Who needs Manny Machado or Jameson Taillon when we can talk about Dana Eveland?!

OK, that's really not fair at all to Eveland. I'm still not a huge fan of the trade that brought Eveland to Pittsburgh, but the following things remain true: he is not Brian Burres, he is moving from the American League to the National League, and he can throw four pitches capably, if not exceptionally. If he can keep the ball on the ground, he probably won't be worse than Zach Duke. If he can't ... he probably won't be in the rotation for long.

Eveland's opponent is the improbably on-fire Carlos Silva, who's 7-0 with a 3.12 ERA after he nearly pitched his way out of baseball with Seattle in 2008 and 2009. He's certainly pitching much better for the Cubs than he ever did in Seattle, but ... I mean he's got to lose some time, right?

First pitch today is 12:35. Clemente/Cangelosi is after the jump.

no comments

The next two days are going to be insanely busy and I've been writing pretty much non-stop this afternoon and will continue doing so tonight in order for things to be properly ready for the draft and Stras-a-palooza on Tuesday night. Basically, gamethreads and recaps will occur as usual, with one more post about Machado and Taillon coming after tomorrow's game but before the draft, a post about Brad Lincoln and his role (or lack thereof) in the Strasburg circus Tuesday morning, and draft coverage as appropriate (likely a post with the first round pick on Monday night, plus an open-thread/semi liveblog on Tuesday for Rounds 2-30).

I do have a few other things to share. First off, make sure you check out Charlie's post about talent evaluation. This particular passage is dead on:

My point here is that if we look at a sample size of hundreds, or thousands, of major leaguers, their careers will be broadly predictable (quick improvement throughout early twenties, peak in mid- to late twenties, and then a slow decline), but individuals buck the trend in ways that aren't that predictable at all.

Dead on. Read all of it.

Second, radio man extraordinaire Rocco DeMaro is now blogging at WPGB's webpage, so make sure you check that out as well.

Finally, I've got some pics from last night's Bradenton/Viera game courtesy reader Andy Coulter. Here's Bradenton's lineup last night:

Now, match the numbers to the players. And notice how freaking huge Calvin Anderson is. And how short Brock Holt and his .351 average are. Holt left last night's game after colliding with second baseman Adenson Chourio and didn't play today. There's no word on how serious the injury is.

Pitcher Hunter Strickland after serving up a homer and a look at Viera's field.

And finally, a nice surreal shot of the Marauders handshake line after closing out the 4-3 win. Manager PJ Forbes (#7) is the axis on which the world rotates!

Thanks for the pics, Andy! Everyone else, buckle up because it's gonna be a wild couple days.

When the Giants scored two runs in the top of the ninth to take a 5-3 lead with Brian Wilson coming in, I thought, "Man, all those big hits early on and we're still going to lose. This is a lame game to lose." Then Delwyn Young crushed a pinch-hit home to tie the game. All that accomplished though was making the eventual loss even lamer, as it now includes a second rough outing for Octavio Dotel and Lastings Milledge and Jeff Clement stranding the tying and go-ahead runs on base in the bottom of the tenth.

Before that, the Pirates managed to come back from deficits of 2-0 and 3-2 against Tim Lincecum, who maybe isn't quite in Cy Young form right now but who certainly didn't look bad today. The Bucs never could get the hit they needed late in the game to break things open, though, and the bullpen just kind of game out in the end. Also, it was not at all helpful that the Giants stole five bases in five tries against Ryan Doumit and his various battery mates and the last one, by Anders Torres in the tenth, turned out to be the difference in the game.

Ross Ohlendorf didn't pitch terribly well, either, with his walks outpacing his strikeouts again. That meant he put 11 guys on base in six innings, and the three runs he allowed could've been a lot more than that. On the bright side, Neil Walker drew the only two walks that Lincecum issued today. Since OBP was a huge problem for him in Double-A and Triple-A before this year, that's one of the things I'm interesting in watching with him this year. With three walks in the last two games against the Giants, he's got four in 46 plate appearances, which isn't a bad start at all.

I'm not sure if there's such thing as a good time to face Tim Lincecum, but if there is it's probably right now. After starting the season in typically dominant fashion, Lincecum's walked five hitters in each of his last four starts giving him 20 walks issued in his last 23 1/3 innings. Throw in 21 hits allowed and suddenly Lincecum's looked mortal, if only because when you put that many people on base some of them have to score. That said, the Pirates' lineup that doesn't walk against anyone is probably exactly what Lincecum needs to see right now and if there ever were a team for him to get back on pace against, I would think it would be the Pirates.

The Bucs are countering with Ross Ohlendorf today, and he's coming off of his best (and really, only good) start of the season against the Cubs last week. After striking out just 15 and walking 18 over 24 2/3 innings in his first five starts, Ohlendorf struck out six and walked just two while allowing only three hits in seven innings against the Cubs on the last day of May. Hopefully it's a sign of things to come for Ohlie and we'll see more of that pitcher over the rest of the season.

First pitch today is 1:35, Clemente/Cangelosi is after the jump.

no comments

For a very, very long time on WHYGAVS, I've been writing about Neil Walker and Andrew McCutchen. For the great majority of the time, they've been abstract concepts, the guys off in the distance that provide the hope that we all need to keep going. And tonight, they batted 1-2 and McCutchen had four hits, three for extra bases, and Walker added two, including a triple, and they scored five of the Pirates' six runs and Walker turned a really nifty double play at second base and the Pirates won and whoa, it's a weird feeling to see two young guys key a win like this after waiting for stuff like this for such a looooong time.

That's not to get ahead of myself with Walker, because we all know he's coming back to earth from his current .351 batting average, but when guys like Freddy Sanchez would rip four hits and spur a win last year it always felt like finding an old box of cereal that wasn't stale. Games like tonight aren't like that.

Abstract expressions of relief and hope aside, wins like this one are always nice to see. The Giants started a subpar pitcher and the Pirates, lead by McCutchen, Walker, and Ryan Doumit (two hits with a big homer, four RBIs) pounded him into submission. Paul Maholm backed it up with a nice start and everyone hung on for dear life with Octavio Dotel and Lastings Milledge running a figure-eight on his way to what was almost a game-tying double by Freddy Sanchez (how awesome was Lastings' huge grin after making his diving catch on the track?) but before the ninth inning it was a solid game and a nice win. It's always good to get a win after a loss with Lincecum looming.

Todd Wellemeyer starts for the Giants tonight, which means that we don't have to dismiss the Pirates' chances straight out of hand before the game even starts. Of course, Wellemeyer has probably pitched better against the Pirates than he has against anyone in his mediocre career, so maybe we shouldn't get our hopes up.

The Pirates will send Paul Maholm out to the mound while the offense tries to find their first earned runs since Tuesday (seriously, between the rainout, the off-day, and Posey's error last night). That's gotta inspire confidence in a starter, doesn't it? First pitch is 7:05, Clemente/Cangelosi is after the jump.

no comments

Just a few things worth noting from last night's game (which I did see, but then went to bed after given the incredibly late, rain-delayed start). Buster Posey's error at first base cost the Giants four runs, but he also had a double and scored twice. The Giants, who are notoriously slow to bring up prospects and in a division race, don't seem to have a problem with calling a prospect up and playing him out of position at first base to get some more offense. Just sayin'.

Zach Duke, meanwhile, continued along with his trend of getting a bunch of strikeouts (he's averaging 7.1/9 innings in his last six starts, which is way, way above his career level of about  five per nine) but also continued along his recent trend of getting the crap pounded out of him (.890 OPS against in those same six outings), allowing 10 hits and six runs in six innings, which was apparently an inning too long since four of those runs came in the sixth.

After two long days off thanks to rain, the Pirates finally return to the field tonight against Jonathan Sanchez and the Giants. With Tim Lincecum on Sunday and Stephen Strasburg on Tuesday, the Pirates have a rough stretch of pitching lined up against them in the next few days. Zach Duke gets his Wednesday start pushed back to today, which throws him off of Strasapalooza for Tuesday and likely puts Jeff Karstens in line for the big-ticket start.

It's likely Karstens because the Pirates sent Brian Burres down to the minors today to make room for Dana Eveland, who's supposed to start in Monday's makeup game against the Cubs. The Bucs also announced yesterday that Donnie Veal will undergo Tommy John surgery, which will end his 2010 season. That's obviously bad news as Veal was making some nice strides in Indy this year considering where he was when we nabbed him in the Rule 5 back in the winter of 08/09. Hopefully he'll bounce back OK next year, though something tells me this injury may be what converts him to the bullpen for good (which was where he was likely to end up anways, probably, but it's still disappointing given that he was a lot better this year than last year).

Anyways, first pitch tonght is at 7:05. Clemente/Cangelosi is after the jump.

no comments

One thing is clear; if the Pirates are planning on taking Manny Machado or Jameson Taillon with the second pick in this year's draft, they're prepared to pony up some cash for their first pick. That leaves a big question, though. How does it affect the rest of the draft? In 2008, the Pirates drafted Pedro Alvarez with their first pick, but didn't pay a second round bonus when Tanner Scheppers' health was in question and still only really went way over slot on a couple guys deeper in their draft, notably Robbie Grossman and Quinton Miller. Last year, they paid Tony Sanchez less than half of Alvarez's bonus, signed a second first round pick (Victor Black in the supplemental round), an early second round pick (Brooks Pounders), plus Zack Dodson, Zach Von Rosenberg, Billy Cain, Trent Stevenson, and Jeffrey Inman.

That's not to criticize one strategy over the other because Alvarez is the best prospect in the Pirates' system and he's coming off of a torrid May that has him back on pace for a trip to Pittsburgh sometime before September of this year. It's just a statement; the Pirates don't seem to be willing to pay $12 million+ for a draft, so if they pay out a huge first round bonus they're not likely to go out and also a grab a handful of overslot high schoolers between rounds 4 and 12 like they did last year.

Still, if the Pirates grab Machado (and most people seem to think they will), they'll probably try to pick up at least one or two more high school arms in the Miller/Cain/Von Rosenberg/Stevenson mold. If the Pirates do that, bypassing Taillon a year after bypassing Matzek, Turner et al., it officially becomes a strategy and that means it's worth asking whether or not it's a good strategy.

It's certainly true that the pitching depth in the Pirates' system right now is light-years ahead of where it was when Neal Huntington took over for Dave Littlefield in 2007. At that point, Brad Lincoln was really the only pitching prospect in the system and he was out recovering from Tommy John surgery. Huntington has brought arms into the system via drafts and trades to the point that I can make a whole list of about 20 pitchers worth watching and nearly all of them were acquired by Huntington. Still, there's not one five-star, blue chip, A/A- pitching prospect in the entire system right now and that's partially because the Pirates haven't drafted them, instead preferring to cast a wide net and try to develop their own.

Actually, I have more faith in that plan than you might think. Rudy Owens was drafted by Dave Littlefield, but his entire development has been overseen by Kyle Stark's crew. Bryan Morris has made leaps and bounds this year and is putting up better numbers than he did at any point in the Dodgers' system. Nathan Adcock and Jeff Locke are having nice bounce-back years in High-A after struggling there in 2009 and are young enough that if they're promoted soon, repeating the level might not hurt them.

But can you really build a rotation like this? Let's look at Rays rotation, the best young rotation in baseball, and how they put it together. Matt Garza was a first round pick (25th overall) out of Fresno State by the Twins who the Rays acquired in the Delmon Young trade. Jeff Niemann was a first round pick (4th overall) out of Rice by the Rays in the 2006 draft. Wade Davis was a third round pick by the Rays out of high school in 2004. David Price was the first overall pick of the 2007 draft out of Vanderbilt. James Shields was a 16th round high school pick in 2000. Jeremy Hellickson (who you'll hear plenty about soon enough, believe me as a guy that watches the Durham Bulls a lot) was a 4th round pick out of high school in 2005.

There are a few first rounders there, but no high schoolers picked in the first round. No Porcellos or Kershaws. The high schoolers were mid-round picks and the college guys were first round picks. It's true that the Pirates haven't picked any pitcher in the first round since Huntington took over, but they also haven't been presented with an opportunity to pick a guy like David Price.

It's obviously too soon to know if guys like Von Rosenberg or Cain or Miller or Stevenson will ultimately validate the Pirates' draft strategy, but it's also way too soon to say that they won't. We can say that they're capable of doing so, though, and that to this point there's not really any reason for the Pirates to deviate from that strategy if they don't want to.

Of course, there's also no reason to not draft a guy like Taillon, if that's what they decide to do. They don't have anyone with his ceiling at his age right now and he probably immediately becomes their best pitching prospect. If they do pick Taillon, it should be interesting to see how the rest of their draft shapes up. Will they still focus on arms for above-slot grabs? Or will they go after position players more in Robbie Grossman's mold? These are all questions worth thinking about as the draft unfolds next week.

With the draft looming on Monday, it's probably time to start some previews for next week's action. I'm going to do it in two parts this year, first looking at the first round (tonight), then a more abstract look at overall strategy and the later rounds tomorrow.

From all of the reading I've done up to this point, it seems like the Pirates' selection at number two is going to come down to one of three players, high school shortstop Manny Machado, high school RHP Jameson Taillon, and Ole Miss LHP Drew Pomeranz. Machado's the name getting connected to the Pirates the most recently as Pomeranz faded a bit down the stretch at Mississippi and Huntington declined to draft and pay guys like Tyler Matzek and Jacob Turner last year which would seemingly make him a bit hesitant to do so for Taillon.

So who is Manny Machado? As a Latino shortstop from Miami with power potential, he's going to inevitably be compared to A-Rod. From the reading I've done I'm not certain he's got that kind of power potential, though it's more or less universally agreed that he's one of the top prep prospects in baseball. I'm not a scout, but I think you can watch the scouting video posted at MLB.com and look at his swing and see why it's so projectable. There are questions about him sticking at shortstop, but there are always questions about high schoolers sticking at shortstop. If you think the guy is going to hit, you draft him figure out where he can play later. Machado is a Scott Boras client, so he won't be easy to sign, but we know from the Pedro Alvarez fiasco that Huntington will work with Boras and that's all that really matters.

Taillon, though, is a 6'7" beast that's the elite pitching talent the Pirates' system currently lacks. He throws smoke with a good curve and slider and already has a changeup. In his scouting video, he looks like a man among boys. The fact that the Pirates would even consider him with the second pick should speak pretty highly to his ability, given the way Huntington shied away from high school arms in last year's first round.

The final candidate is Pomeranz, who really boosted his stock with a huge senior year at Ole Miss. It's been pretty common for Pirate fans to compare him to Zach Duke or Paul Maholm since he's a lefty that doesn't have overwhelming velocity, but he throws harder than either of those two guys currently on the Pirates' staff. As the second overall pick, I think that Brad Lincoln is a decent comparison, in terms of talent and ceiling. Lincoln had an incredible senior year at Houston and everyone agreed that he was one of the better college pitchers in the draft and not at all a reach when the Pirates took him fourth, but he was never going to grow into an ace. I kind of view Pomeranz in the same light; he's probably going to have a good career, but he's also probably not going to have a great one.

I don't mean that as a slight to Pomeranz, but I really hope the Pirates stick with one of the two high schoolers when they pick in the first round. Frankly, they don't have a whole lot of talent like either Machado or Taillon in the system right now and with the second pick in the draft, they have to get real, blue chip, the sky's the limit sort of potential. Part of me wants to say that makes Taillon the choice, but it seems like the Pirates are leaning towards Machado and I can't see anything wrong with that, either.