This morning Joel Sherman's been tweeting about how the potential CBA changes will affect Jose Reyes's Type A free agent status (they won't), but during the stream he's mentioned that the expectation is that the new CBA will do away with Type B free agents entirely. That would include Derrek Lee and Ryan Doumit, who the Pirates were likely hoping to get picks for, as well as Ryan Ludwick and Chris Snyder, who the Pirates were probably unlikely to offer arbitration to. 

Of course there's a lot of stuff going around about the CBA right now and we won't know much for sure until it's finalized. Tim Dierkes, for example, says that this is the first he's heard of Type B free agents being eliminated (not that Tim has inside information here, necessarily, but rather that it's likely that he's read a whole lot more about this than anyone else), so it's possible that some of the rumors we're hearing over the last few days won't come true. As a Pirate fan, I'm obviously more concerned about the draft changes, but narrowing down free agent compensation seems like something targeted at a team like the Rays, who've worked the system to their advantage (of course, the Red Sox have as well), and that's a little concerning to me.

I wrote this about last weekend's Jamey Carroll Sweepstakes over at the Outside Corner. I'm planning on making my winter posts over there part of a recurring theme: the winter is a rough time to be the fan of any team except for a few of baseball's biggest spenders. 

Neal Huntington joined with Brian Cashman and Theo Epstein (I know!) this weekend at Buster Olney's "Going to Bat for Vermont Farmers" benefit to help the region recover from Hurricane Irene, and Jed from Sox Detox was there to chronicle the event. He wrote that Huntington, who's inclusion probably stems from the fact that he's a New Hampshire native, held his own pretty well with the big-market guys and in a brief chat with him afterwards discussed everything from trading Joel Hanrahan to Rod Barajas to Pedro Alvarez to Starling Marte to pitcher development. It's definitely worth your time to check out both links. 

Ryan Doumit reportedly turned down a 1-year/$3 million offer from the Dodgers over the weekend. That's quite a bit less than the Pirates would've owed him on his team option and even less than the Pirates are paying Rod Barajas, so it's possible that quite a few clubs have downgraded Doumit due to his poor defense behind the plate and inability to stay healthy. Jerry Crasnick expects him to sign a one-year deal (presumably to drive his value up some) soon. As Tim pointed out last week, that'd be nice because it'd ensure that the Pirates get a draft pick for him, assuming that sort of compensation for Type B free agents holds in the new CBA. 

Speaking of which, Buster Olney has some interesting stuff on the new CBA this morning and it looks like there will be some real changes to the draft. They would include a 10-round ceiling based on slot recommendations. Teams wouldn't be forced to adhere to slot guidelines, but they'd be penalized for going over the ceiling. Right now it looks like they'll be taxed the first time and penalized by losing a pick the second time. Nothing's set in stone yet, but it looks like this is aimed at keeping teams like the Pirates from making big first and second round picks. Which is pretty unfortunate, for obvious reasons. We'll have to stay tuned to see how it all plays out. 

Gerrit Cole had a solid bounce-back performance on Saturday after his disastrous start in the AFL Rising Stars Game. He struck out four, walked one, and gave up one run on two hits in a three inning outing. 

Robbie Grossman's breakout 2011 season won't have a happy ending. Kristy Robinson reported last night that the outfielder broke a hamate bone in one of his hands and is due for surgery next week. The problem with a hamate injury, as Pirate fans know well by now (Jose Tabata injured his hamate in the minors with the Yankees, Pedro Alvarez injured his at Vanderbilt) is that it can sap a player's power for up to a year while he recovers. Grossman is coming off of a career-high 13 homers and 34 doubles with the Bradenton Marauders this year in addition to lighting up the Arizona Fall League, and the biggest question around him right now is whether he can really develop that power into something to go with his great plate patience. Now, we'll likely be waiting an extra year for the answer to that question.

And this was shaping up to be such a nice fall-ball season between Grossman and Gerrit Cole and Chris Leroux throwing well in the Dominican. Cole pitches again tonight and can hopefully erase the ugly start he made in last Saturday's Rising Stars Game.  

From FOX's Hot Stove blog: 

The Pittsburgh Pirates have interest in free-agent Ramon Santiago as a potential everyday shortstop in 2012, major-league sources told FOXSports.com.

Santiago maintained a .685 OPS for the Detroit Tigers over the past three seasons while averaging roughly 100 games played per year. He’s regarded as a sure-handed defender at second base and shortstop. The 32-year-old has become immensely popular with his teammates in Detroit because of his leadership and confident, easygoing demeanor.

Nope, not terrible enthused here. Santiago can't hit at all and he's never played more than 85 games in a season at shortstop. His defensive reputation is generally good, but he's also 32. Why you'd drop a reasonably priced Ronny Cedeno for Santiago is kind of beyond me. 

I am super-super busy today so I have to wait a bit before I can give much analysis, but the Pirates have signed Rod Barajas to a one-year deal with a club option for 2013. As far as upgrading the defense behind the plate with a guy that might hit a little, Barajas makes plenty of sense. 

A little bit more: Look, Barajas isn't an exciting signing. I know that and you know that. He's 36 and his offense appears to be tailing, which means that he could be a complete disaster at the plate in 2012. I wrote last week, though, that the Pirates wouldn't (and probably shouldn't) do much more than acqurie a stopgap behind the plate this winter and I think Barajas functions pretty well in that capacity.  

Barajas has scored pretty strongly over the last two years in Matt Klaassen's defensive metrics for catchers (2010, 2011), which makes him a big upgrade over Doumit in that category (it's worth noting that McKenry didn't score strongly behind the plate, either, in 2011). He won't get on base very much (his career OBP is .284), but he managed to hit 16 homers in 98 games for the Dodgers last year and he's hit with reasonable pop in 2010, as well. The chance that he'll fall off the table this year, but honestly, even if that happened he might be an offensive upgrade over McKenry. 

Because he's only signed for one year at $4 million (that's a fair price if you assume he'll be worth something around one win above replacement in 2012, which doesn't seem unreasonable), I don't see any reason that he'd keep Eric Fryer off of the field if Fryer proves that he's capable of being an every day catcher or if Tony Sanchez bounces back and tears the cover off of the ball in Indianapolis this year. Basically, he's a one or two year (his option for 2012 is $3.5 million) insurance policy to keep the Pirates from just writing off the catching position entirely. There's some risk here with his age, but I think there's a decent chance when it's all said and done that his defense will make it so that he's not a huge downgrade over Doumit. 

The bottom line is that the Pirates had to do something about their catching situation this winter and because of Sanchez, they weren't going to do anything dramatic. I think I might've preferred Kelly Shoppach if the Pirates had a chance to sign him, but it's possible that they didn't or that the price was dramatically higher for Shoppach. In any case, Barajas was probably the best realistic free agent option for them behind Shoppach (Ramon Hernandez is Type A, Doumit is likely looking for multiple years, which makes them both unrealistic options), so even if this isn't exactly a World Series clinching move, it doesn't mean that it's a bad one. 

Now that I've run through the various positions that the Pirates need to upgrade this winter and ways they might go about doing so (if you missed the individual pieces: starting pitching, shortstop, catcher, first base), let's take a step back and look at the team as a whole. This is a tall task facing Neal Huntington this winter. The Pirates have problems attracting decent free agents, Huntington may or may not have trouble identifying scrap-heap players that aren't pitchers (it depends on how much of the blame you place on the first problem of convincing free agents to play for the Pirates), and the Pirates have a number of places they need to upgrade. If they can't upgrade all of them, they face making huge downgrades over even the marginal players that they've let go or may let go in the near future. That means that if the Pirates do manage to find, say, a better-than-Ronny-Cedeno shortstop, they may give that upgrade back by playing Mike McKenry and Matt Pagnozzi all year. 

On top of that, the Pirates were awful last year. Much worse than their record indicated. Let's say that they do, in fact, go out and get Chris Capuano and Kelly Shoppach and Clint Barmes and they convince Derrek Lee to come back and Charlie Morton gets healthy and Chris Leroux isn't a terrible starter. Guess what? That team still might stink. At the least, it's a distinct possibility. 

That's why Charlie's dead-on with this post about the Pirates having a near-impossible task this winter. He closes by saying that in order to really get anything done, the Pirates need to be creative this winter, which is something I've been saying that I hope the Pirates will do for a while. The thing about being creative is this, though: creative is almost certain to mean unpopular. 

You know what I think the best way for the Pirates to be creative this winter is? Trading Joel Hanrahan. Huntington's done a great job putting bullpens together the last couple of years and despite what you may hear or read from traditional sources, closers are pretty fungible. How many consistently good closers have really existed in baseball in the last 15 or so years? It's a surprisingly low number. The reality is that a lot of teams over-value closers and there's a really good chance that Hanrahan is at or near the absolute peak of his value. They might be better of leveraging him at the trade deadline for a contending team that really needs a closer or set-up man (the Rangers paid quite a haul for Mike Adams and Koji Uehara both at the deadline this year), but if the Pirates aren't actively shopping Hanrahan this weekend, I'd tell you that the front office isn't doing its job. Trading Hanrahan would probably have an angry mob rush Federal Street with pitchforks, but Hanrahan's trade value is much greater than his actual value to the Pirates and the Pirates don't have many guys like that.

The same goes for pretty much every outfielder above Double-A not named Andrew McCutchen. The Pirates simply won't be able to use Jose Tabata AND Alex Presley AND Gorkys Hernandez AND Starling Marte, nor should they be counting on all of them to become regular contributors. There are significant questions about all of them and they all have individual value at this point. They don't have to trade all of them (or even more than one), of course, but this is where the Pirates have an excess and a chance to cash in on it. Would trading Tabata so close to his extension or Presley on the heels of his breakout or Marte before he even reaches the Majors be popular? Of course not. It'd probably send Pirate fans into a rage. Dealing from strength is something the Pirates are going to have to do at some point, though, because they have a lot of weaknesses and they have quite a few players that could potentially be overvalued by someone else right now. That might not be true in a year.

The Pirates are always going to have to make tough decisions and if they want any hope of 2012 being more than a wasted season, they're going to have to make one or two of those tough decisions this winter. Would the Pirates make a hugely unpopular trade that improves the team so close to actually getting fans back into PNC Park during the summer of 2011? Honestly, I'm worried that they'd be slow to make that decision. I hope I'm wrong.  

Here's a nice interview by Kristy Robinson with Chris Leroux where he talks about his desire to start and the work he's been doing to turn his career around. Since the team he's pitching with in the Dominican is managed by Dean Treanor (the Indianapolis Indians' manager), it seems pretty likely he's starting because the team wants him starting. 

You know what? I'm tired of being negative about this off-season. I still don't think that things are going to play out terribly well for the Pirates this winter, but I also don't think I've done a good job of making it clear that I don't think the Pirates are breaking up the 1927 Yankees again. Ronny Cedeno and Ryan Doumit and Paul Maholm and Garrett Jones (should he be non-tendered) are all replaceable. They're not All-Stars. They might be the best the Pirates can do for 2012, but doesn't just thinking that make you feel dirty? I hope the Pirates can do better. So let's sit down and think of ways Neal Huntington might be able to improve this team this winter, because otherwise, it's going to be an awful and negative off-season.

Of all of the places the Pirates need to find help at this winter, I'm least certain what they're going to do at first base. They could keep Garrett Jones and platoon him with someone like Matt Hague. They could try to sign Derrek Lee or some similar aging free agent. They could flip Pedro Alvarez to first. They could make a small trade. They could make a big trade. They could go scrap-heap diving. 

On one hand, it's easy to say that the Pirates should be able to upgrade this position. Lyle Overbay was terrible at first base for a huge chunk of 2011 and simply letting Jones play against righties and having someone else bat against left-handed starters should fix a large part of the problem. With Alex Presley presumably taking a full-time role in the outfield, it could be an easy way to upgrade two positions at once without doing much. On the other hand, Jones isn't much better than a replacement player at first, his defense there is atrocious, and any platoon parter the Pirates would pair him with would probably be disastrous, be it the unproven Matt Hague or the 2012 version of Matt Diaz.  Having a lot of options doesn't mean they have a lot of good options.

The free agent market doesn't strike me as one that's likely to yield a ton of fruit for the Pirates, either. Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder are the gems, then guys like Michael Cuddyer and Derrek Lee will help fill in the gaps for the teams that don't sign Pujols or Fielder. Beyond that, it's a pretty dicey market. Carlos Pena would make sense for the Pirates, but he'd have to want to sign with the Bucs for that to happen. It's possible he'd be a consolation prize in the Pujols/Fielder derby, as well, which would drive his price out of the Pirates' range. The Pirates could likely outbid the Rays for Casey Kotchman, but that would be gambling on him repeating his career 2011 season. What I'm concerned about here is that they do something like non-tender Jones, then try to replace him with someone clearly past his prime and ready for an Overbay-like season like Russel Branyan. 

If the Pirates were to swing a big trade this winter, it seems to me that first base is probably the place they could find the best upgrade. Beyond the Box Score ran a good primer of potential trade candidates earlier this fall. Logan Morrison may be on his way out in Miami after clashing with the team repeatedly over his constant tweeting and with the front office looking to spend big money to make a splash in their new stadium. There's nowhere for Yonder Alonso to play in Cincinnati unless they deal Joey Votto, but the Reds are likely better suited flipping Alonso for chips to help them contend with Votto (the way the Brewers did with Fielder in 2011). Kendrys Morales (if healthy) and/or Mark Trumbo might be available if the Angels try to make a splash and go after Fielder or Pujols. The Cardinals could try to PA native Matt Adams if they bring Pujols back. The Blue Jays could try and move Adam Lind after another disappointing year in Toronto and maybe a move to the NL would help him. 

The thing to keep in mind when considering a trade is this: it won't be cheap. Would you be willing to part with Alex Presley? Starling Marte? Joel Hanrahan? Zach Von Rosenberg or Colton Cain or Nick Kingham? Tony Sanchez? The Pirates will most certainly have to move some of their young players at some point in the near future, so the pertinent question is whether this hypothetical move is the best use of that young talent. What if the Pirates ship Hanrahan and Marte and Kyle McPherson (again, hypothetical, I don't really know what it would take to get that particular deal done though I suspect the Reds would want an overpay to keep Alonso in the division and I know they need a pitching and a closer with Cordero on the free agent market) to the Reds for Alonso, only to have Pedro Alvarez hit 30 homers in 2012 and give a full-season display of why he can't play third base? Now you have to make another deal, and you've tipped your hand quite a bit. A second trade of Alonso or Alvarez could be necessary at that point, and it might be a tougher trade to make with teams knowing you have to deal one. 

None of this is to say the Pirates shouldn't swing a trade for a first baseman this winter. I think that Pedro Alvarez has created enough doubt that if the Pirates have a chance to make a significant upgrade for a reasonable price (I think this is probably it's own post as to what "reasonable price" is, but obviously guys like Alonso or Morrison would be worth paying quite a bit more for than, say, Lind) at first base that they should consider it, but there are a number of moving pieces here. Should they burn resources for a first baseman when they really need a shortstop and shorstops are, in general, much harder to find? Would they be better off taking a risk than paying through the nose for a more sure thing? These aren't easy questions to answer, but they're the questions facing the Pirates at first base this winter.

Via Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus (who's 4,000 word summary of what you're about to see is must-read), I give you: Yoenis Cespedes, The Showcase. You can thank me later. (Note: there's some NSFW audio in the form of background music.)