A plea for sanity while discussing the McLouth trade

Written by Pat Lackey on .

When I got home on Wednesday, I sat down, turned on my TV, and opened up my computer. In it was an e-mail from the FanHouse thread, timestamped just minutes before I sat down. I couldn't really process the words in it. "Nate McLouth traded to the Braves." The link was to the PG and Dejan's blog. I quickly processed that it was not a joke. I threw up a quick post with the same link here while more e-mails about the terms of the trade poured in and my gchat started popping, both with people asking me if the deal was real and with FanHousers asking me if I wanted the post on the deal.

While I was frantically typing, I was trying to process the deal at the same time. Three things quickly popped into my mind above the rest. The first was that I wasn't completely in love with the return. The value of all three players is obvious, but there is certainly room for debate, especially over a prospect like Gorkys Hernandez. The second was that regardless of what I thought of the return on the trade, Neal Huntington did not have similar doubts. All I've asked for years is a GM with the balls to pull the trigger on a move like this; attempting to sell high on a player that doesn't have to be traded because the minor leagues have to be rebuilt, regardless of how the fans will see this move. The third thing, which was actually the first thought that entered my mind when I read the e-mail, was, "Wow. People are going to be piiiiiissed."

I've gotten a couple angry e-mails about this trade. I expected that. I was invited to two separate, "The Pirates' front office sucks with vigor hitherto unseen" Facebook groups. I expected that. I read some blog entries tearing the trade apart. Expected that, too. What I didn't expect? An absolutely uninformed hit-job by the Post-Gazette's editorial board. If you haven't read it yet, save yourself the trouble and the fury that will likely ensue. It calls the trade a salary dump and panders to the PBC commentariat. It's not just poorly researched, it's unreasearched and worse, its thoughtless. It's inflammatory, and it ends with a clumsy, unfunny, and unoriginal Mark Cuban joke.

This blog entry is not a direct response to that. It is, instead, an alternative to the thought process that leads to the conclusion reached not just by the PG's editorial board, but by thousands upon thousands of Pirate fans. I'm not trying to convince anyone of anything, I'm simply trying to explain what I believe is happening and why I'm on board with it. I'm probably starting at the wrong place here because more than 75% of the votes in the poll on this very site indicate a favorable reaction to the trade, which is certainly skewed from the general population. Regardless, everything has to start somewhere.

The first question to ask yourself when evaluating this trade should be, "What would Dave Littlefield have done?" Littlefield, if you'll remember, spent the better part of his seven seasons on the job here doing everything in his power to finish .500. That includes, but is not limited do, moving funds from the draft and Latin America into overpriced, long-shot free agents, holding on to players with limited value past their peak value to the team rather than trading them for prospects, and trading almost all of his trade chips for spare part "Major League ready" veterans instead of building blocks. He was the most destructive force that a small-market team like the Pirates with a limited budget could have ever encountered. A small market baseball team must be managed like a chess game. Each move that's made has to be made with ten other moves in mind. Each move must be constantly building towards something greater.

Littlefield was the antithesis of this. Each move he made was made with only the present in mind with everything building towards RIGHT NOW. Ryan Howard might help the Pirates down the road, but Ty Wigginton will help us RIGHT NOW. Freddy Sanchez might be a good hitter down the road, but Joe Randa will help us RIGHT NOW. Would the man that spent his entire career attempting to finish .500 RIGHT NOW have ever traded his best player, a player signed for three years, for three prospects when the team was just four games below .500? Never in a million years.

Dave Littlefield was bad at his job because he refused to accept the restraints placed on him by Major League Baseball's economy. The Yankees can rebuild through free agency. The Pirates cannot. Littlefield got lucky in the late winter of 2003 and signed three steals on the free agency market in Kenny Lofton, Reggie Sanders, and Jeff Suppan that were only available because of some minor collusion that went on that winter. He then spent the next four off-seasons trying to replicate that feat with Jeromy Burnitz, Chris Stynes, Raul Mondesi, and Joe Randa while trying to find similar magic through trades with Sean Casey and Matt Morris.

If you're one of the people clamoring for the Pirates to spend more money, what do you expect that money to be spent on? Because a team in the Pirates' situation is going to spend that money on the players Dave Littlefield acquired. Littlefield's problem wasn't that he was bad at acquiring players, it's that he wanted to acquire those players in the first place. This off-season, where the Pirates were spurned in nearly every inquisition they made about free agents, wasn't a sign of the Pirates being unwilling to spend. It was a sign of the Pirates not being a destination on everybody's radar. Do you know where Jeromy Burnitz played after Pittsburgh? Or Chris Stynes? How many seasons did Mondesi spend in the league after the partial season he spent with the Bucs? Where's Joe Randa? How much did Neal Huntington have to pay Matt Morris to just go away? The only people willing to come to Pittsburgh right now are the people with nowhere else to turn. You want the Bucs to open up the checkbook? I'm sorry, but we tried that already. It didn't work.

Perhaps the most maddening accusation being thrown around in regards to this trade is that it was a "salary dump." Make no mistake; if the Pittsburgh Pirates can't afford Nate McLouth's three-year, $15 million contract, we might as well all pack our bags and go home now. It was a good contract and an affordable one, and that goes without mentioning the signing bonus paid up front. This trade was all about restocking the farm system, even at the cost of the Major League team's current best player. I understand frustrated fans calling the trade a salary dump, but for the editorial board of a major newspaper, and one with a very good sports department at that, to make such a baseless accusation is exactly what newspapers accuse bloggers of doing all the time. It's ridiculous, and it does nothing except add fuel to the fire of the fans that already thought that way, even though it's far from the truth

There is plenty of room for debate about the Huntington/Coonelly management team. Are they properly evaluating their assets and their returns when they're making these trades? Are they interested in the right sort of player to rebuild this organization? Is their strict player-development team the best way to bring future assets through the minors? Do they have a blueprint right now beyond acquiring as much talent as possible? These are all interesting questions that I don't know the answers to. This front office has a plan and that puts them light-years ahead of the previous front office, but all plans aren't good plans. This is what our discussion should be focused on, whether it's here, on a message board, at water coolers, or in the newspaper. But throwing up your hands, calling the trade a salary dump, and saying, "Things just never change for the Pirates," is lazy and thoughtless. It doesn't get anyone anywhere and it needs to stop.

Game 54: Astros 9 Pirates 1

Written by Pat Lackey on .

This season really has been a roller coaster, hasn't it? One day we're sweeping the depleted Mets in blowout fashion with the Dash Brothers leading the way and the next day Mike Hampton is shutting us down for the third time while the lowly Astros are rounding the bases like the Gashouse Gorillas against Jeff Karstens.

This is the way the 2009 season is going to go, especially now that McLouth's gone. Every game can't be a 2-for-4 romp for McCutchen and with him and Morgan at the top of the lineup, there are going to be games where the table is empty for the middle guys. Adam LaRoche, Eric Hinske, and Delwyn Young hit 4-5-6 last and night and rapped five of our six hits, but that was only good for one run because McCutchen, Morgan, and Sanchez only reached base once last night.

Mike Hampton's got four wins now and three have come at our expense. That's probably the thing that irks me about last night's game more than anything, to be honest.

Onwards to Houston

Written by Pat Lackey on .

We certainly haven't finished talking about the McLouth trade, what with pandering editorials and moaning players and the like, but the Pirates march onwards and so for now, it's gamethread time. The Pirates and Astros play tonight in Houston as the Pirates continue what was originally a 17-games-in-17-days span before a rainout changed things. Jeff Karstens gets the ball for the black and gold while Mike Hampton, who's owned us this year, goes for the 'Stros. Andy LaRoche is out with a sore kneecap after being beaned yesterday, but Andrew McCutchen is back at the top of the lineup, and that's enough to have me excited about the game tonight.

Two links

Written by Pat Lackey on .

I wish I had time for more, but I do have two links that I think everyone would be interested in this morning.

First up, Charlie Morton made his debut with Indianapolis last night. He tossed seven scoreless innings, striking out seven with just one walk and four hits. Either Ohlendorf, Karstens, or Snell is about to pitch themselves out of a rotation spot.

Kiley McDaniel, who's covering Latin America, had this to say yesterday (subscription):

The Pirates have been said to think, like many talent evaluators, that Sano is the best Latin prospect in years; this is why it’s no secret that nearly every Latin insider thinks Pittsburgh will end up with Sano.

He uses the rest of the piece to break down the piece from the PG about the bonus money Sano may get and if you've got time and a BP subscription, it's worth a read.

Game 53: Pirates 11 Mets 6

Written by Pat Lackey on .

When dealing with prospects drafted from high school, sometimes it feels like we watch them move through the minor leagues forever before we ever see a glimpse of them in a big league uniform. That's certainly been the case with Andrew McCutchen. The Pirates picked him with the 11th pick in the 2005 draft, and ten of the players picked before him have already made their Major League debuts. McCutchen, meanwhile, has slowly moved through the Pirates' system. Given his age and his skillset, there have been times that I've wondered if he was ever going to make it to Pittsburgh. Finally, when he started to hit the ball in spring training this year and in Indianapolis after that, the player that the scouts have been telling us about for so many years started to take shape.

Today, he finally made it to Pittsburgh with a single in his first at-bat, another RBI single later in the game, a walk, a stolen base, and three runs scored. Andrew McCutchen has a long way to go to live up to his potential and he's going to struggle along the way, especially this year, but he's finally in black and gold and it's great to see. Honestly, I'm almost excited to watch his at-bats from this afternoon on the DVR as I am to watch the Penguins tonight.

Of course, he doesn't score three runs without help. Nyjer Morgan rapped three hits directly behind him (How does "Morgan and McCutchen: The Dash Brothers" sound?), both LaRoches had a hit and some RBIs, Jason Jaramillo drove in four runs with two hits, and Ramon Vazquez singled four times. They needed all those runs, too, because Ross Ohlendorf was very shaky today, giving up five runs and nine hits without getting out of the fifth inning. Still, the bullpen clamped down and cleaned up after him, with Steven Jackson tossing two scoreless innings to pick up his first big league win.

We can't get ahead of ourselves. Both Andrew McCutchen and the Pittsburgh Pirates have a long way to go. But today? It sure was a great first step.

Let's give the kid a shot

Written by Pat Lackey on .

Ross Ohelndorf and Mike Pelfrey at 12:35 in the first game of the Andrew McCutchen era in Pittsburgh. One of my favorite things to write to remind people why certain trades have to happen is, "You have to remember that [Jason Bay, Xavier Nady, maybe even Nate McLouth] wasn't going to be here by the time the Pirates finally make the playoffs again." Well, folks, Andrew McCutchen will be here when that happens, or we're probably never making the playoffs again.

He's batting leadoff today and playing in center field, and I'd just like to remind all the people out there that hate the McLouth trade (and I know there are a lot of you) that we didn't trade McClouth for McCutchen. He's only 22 right now and he's going to struggle at times, but it's absolutely not fair to take your frustration out on him.

In fact, regardless of how you feel about this trade, you should be excited to see McCutchen. He's the rare prospect that was drafted by Dave Littlefield and made it mostly through Littlefield's minor league torture chamber to arrive in Pittsburgh as a good prospect. He's the best Pirate hitting prospect since ... I don't even know when. Aramis Ramirez, I guess. Hopefully, we'll get used to players like this making their debuts in the next few years, but right now, this is something special. Get out your radios, double-check those DVRs, and let's enjoy this.

A quick note

Written by Pat Lackey on .

UPDATE: I didn't want to make this it's own post, but there's now a poll in the left sidebar about the McLouth trade.

Andrew McCutchen is most likely making his Major League debut tomorrow at 12:35 against the Mets. I don't think the game is on FSN Pittsburgh, but it is available to Extra Innings subscribers, so if you want to see it, you should set your DVRs.

What is Nate McLouth worth?

Written by Pat Lackey on .

That's an anecdotal question at this point, because Neal Huntington has set his value at Craig Morton, Gorkys Hernandez, and Jeff Locke. The question that remains: is that enough? McLouth is signed reasonably through 2011 and the Pirates didn't get Tommy Hanson or Jason Heyward in this deal, so immediately, Pirate fans are going to hate it. I can feel the hateful venom pouring out of Pittsburgh as I type this, but is it justified? Should the Pirates care?

Here's what the Pirates traded: a 27-year-old centerfielder with pretty decent power and a .350 OBP. Those are measurables. His defense is pretty hotly contested among Pirate fans, but if Neal Huntington's going around quoting UZR to the press, I doubt the Pirates thought highly of him in that capacity and it's not likely that a lot of front offices did, either. He is a great base runner, but that's even harder to quantify than defense. Nate McLouth is a great player on the Pittsburgh Pirates, but he's only a good player everywhere else. PECOTA only projected him for 21 homers this year. If he drops even five homers like that projection suggests, I think to a lot of people, 2008 becomes somewhat of a fluke and McLouth's trade value drops.

Remember, too, that lots of teams have been interested in McLouth in the past six months or so. I'm guessing a lot of teams made calls to Huntington trying to suggest that McLouth was a complete fluke and he should sell while his value is still high. None of those deals took place, so that suggests (at least to me) that Huntington really likes the package he pulled in from Atlanta tonight. It continues in the direction that the deals last year took the Pirates; it immediately creates more pitching depth at the big league level with Morton and it keeps restacking a depleted minor league system with Hernandez and Locke.

If you're still not buying in to this trade, let me ask you a question. What do you think Freddy Sanchez is worth in a trade right now? And what do you think he would've been worth after his 2006 season? Remember Craig Wilson? What do you think he would've been worth in 2004? And we got who for him in 2006? Shawn Chacon. A player like McLouth, who breaks out later in his career, is always going to have diminishing value as you move away from that breakout. The Pirates got two good prospects and a third potentially useful player for him. That's not an insignificant haul, even if it doesn't include any of the Braves top prospects.

This is certainly a tough pill to swallow as a fan. It sucks to see good players come to Pittsburgh and leave before they win anything. But Huntington and Coonelly have brought a ton of good talent into the system in the past two years, and this trade tonight continues that trend. Just remember where things were when Huntington took over (Andrew McCutchen as the top prospect then Steve Pearce and Neil Walker as the next two) and think about where they are right now with McCutchen, Alvarez, Tabata, Grossman, Morris, Hernandez, Locke, a few other picks from last year, and whoever we draft this year. That's a HUGE improvement. So the Pirates won't finish .500 this year. We knew that would happen. And they'll have the worst losing streak in baseball history. We knew that would happen, too. Both of these things would've happened with McLouth. But trading him now, well, it's all part of the necessary process to stop the losing at some point in the future. As a fan of a team in the position the Pirates are in right now, I'd much rather have a GM focused on the future rather than the present.

Pirates trade McLouth to Braves

Written by Pat Lackey on .

Holycrapholycrapholycrapholycrap.

No word on who other than to say it's not Tommy Hanson. Will update as updates come.

UPDATE: I've got names: Charlie Morton, Gorkys Hernandez, and Jeff Locke. And Andrew McCutchen gets the call to Pittsburgh.

UPDATE #2 (aka, the long update): John Sickels had Hernandez and Locke both graded as B-'s before the season started, which would approximately place them around Bryan Morris-level prospects. Locke was a second round pick in 2006 right out of high school and he's still very young. His record was ugly last year, but his peripherals were very nice for a 20-year-old playing in low-A ball. Being a young left-handed starter with a big arm and huge upside, I'm betting he's the player Huntington was after in this deal.

Hernandez is an interesting prospect in the Jose Tabata mold. He was signed by the Tigers out of Venezuela and sent to Atlanta in the Jair Jurrjens/Edgar Renteria trade. He's been pretty aggressively pushed through the minors, as he's in AA at the age of 21, and his numbers are pretty good considering his age at each level. The Tigers and then the Braves were both waiting for him to flash some more power, but he's a great athlete, fast, and good defensively according to this profile, so the Pirates are possibly hoping he'll develop somewhere along the Andrew McCutchen curve.

Morton might be plugged into the rotation right away. He's 25 and he's put up great numbers in the International League in the past two seasons. This Scout.com profile describes him as an "enigma" with great stuff that's a bit of a head case. He made 15 not-so-good starts with the Braves last year, but like I said, he seemed to take a step forward in AAA last year and isn't terribly old. He sort of fills the same role that acquiring Karstens, Ohlendorf, and McCutchen did last year, he provides immediate pitching depth that with some coaching could potentially turn out to be something a little more.

I'll write a longer post with some more opinion in it later tonight.

Top Stories

Awful Announcing

Awful Announcing