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What would be improvement? E-mail
Written by Pat Lackey   
Monday, 08 February 2010 11:13

Within the last couple weeks or so, the projected PECOTA and CHONE 2010 standings were both released. Neither is particularly friendly to the Pirates; PECOTA predicts 70 wins and the worst record in baseball, CHONE predicts 74 wins and a tie for the third worst record in baseball ahead of only the Blue Jays (68) and Astros (73).

But then, no one that's really following the team should be surprised that an 18th losing season is imminent. We all know it's coming. What I'm curious about is what sort of record should we take as acceptable improvement towards preventing the nineteenth losing season? 74 wins isn't impressive by any stretch, but a 12-win improvement would probably be among the biggest improvements in the league, and it'd be done with a very different roster from last year and maybe even without much help from the minor leaguers closest to Pittsburgh. So if the Pirates won 74 games this year (their most since 2003) would that be enough? With their low payroll, the impending contributions from Pedro Alvarez, Jose Tabata, and Brad Lincoln (all who may help in 2010, though I think Alvarez is the only one of those three with a chance to make a real impact this year), and a few young guys already on the team getting better as they age, does the leap from 74 to 82 and beyond seem unrealistic in 2011?

Addendum: Gene from fellow Bloguin blog Favre Dollar Footlongs asks how reliable projections like CHONE and PECOTA are. Vegas Watch actually compiles and evaluates these things every year and last fall looked at how the projection systems stacked up over the last five seasons. He found that PECOTA was generally the most reliable, though they had a terrible year last year and since that terrible year coincided with Nate Silver going political it seems wise to take their projected standings with a grain of salt until they can prove they have things back on track. CHONE has been the best over the four years that it's existed, though, so it generally does a good job of these sorts of things. Of course take that for what it's worth; certainly none of these systems are perfect and there's a good bit of error in all of them, there's simply less error in CHONE over the past four seasons.


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Comments (14)add comment

FavreDollarFootlongs said:

...
Pat,

I don't consider the Buccos improved until we're at least .500. A few games here and there is nice. Being competitive is nice, but until we get over the hump I don't think we're improved.

I was wondering if you have any previous CHONE or PECOTA predictions so we can see how accurate they have been in the past?
 
February 08, 2010 | url
Votes: -1

w.k. kortas said:

...
I think the most important idea here is the idea that folks like Alvarez, Cutch, Tabata, Morton et alshow progress and don't take steps backward. If that happens, an improved won-loss record is nice, but it's a secondary concern.
 
February 08, 2010
Votes: +1

stanson said:

...
Pirates Improvement Scale 2010 (diehards vs yinzer masses):

71-73 wins: the diehards (us) remain optimistic about the future, while the masses remain incredibly pissed.

74-76 wins: the diehards (us) become giddy, while the masses become slightly less pissed but still continue threatening to cancel their season ticket packages.

77-80 wins: the diehards (us) throw several parties, while the masses decide to temporarily stop bashing nutting so badly. Bob Smizik is fired.

81+ wins: the diehards (us) reach a state of baseball euphoria, while the masses begin to rapidly head towards the ever-promising bucco bandwagon.
 
February 08, 2010
Votes: +4

MDBuc said:

...
Agreed with stanson.

I'm looking forward to being giddy (74-76 wins) with hopes that Smizik is fired. If either come true I may throw a party anyway. If both come true It's a kegger.
 
February 08, 2010
Votes: -1

appeal2smail said:

...
I'll bring the cornbread and wings, dessert too.
 
February 08, 2010
Votes: -1

Maxwell said:

I like Stanson's take
I'm expecting 74-76. The only thing I would be concerned about would be a mid-season trade.

I still don't think Doumit is going anywhere, but I could see Duke or Maholm traded if one of them got hot (most likely based on luck).

Since the Bucs Pyth Record last year was 67-94, it wouldn't be a true 12-14 game improvement if they actually did win 74-76, but considering the team's record from July-September, it would still be a heck of an improvement.
 
February 08, 2010
Votes: +0

Tom Kazansky said:

Does it really matter?
70+ wins would be nice. But really, it's really secondary to the progress of our prospects and youngsters. Winning 75 games would be great, but it's a secondary concern. It's time to actually rebuild. Not this Littlefield era half-hearted b.s.

Although if I make it to every game, the streak could end. They were 12-1 last season when I was in attendance, including Santana, Wainwright and Lincecum starts.
 
February 08, 2010
Votes: -1

Bob1977 said:

Mixed feeling
Honestly you can predict how many games the Pirates will win because you have no idea what they will do at the trading deadline. If they go through their annual fire sale, they won't win 70 games yet again this year. Don't opposed to trading the likes of a Dotel or Donnelly but if the Pirates trade some of their "younger building blocks" yet again I really might finally be done with this team until Nutting sells.

If the some of the younger guys develop and they win 73 or 74 games, it was a step in the right direction.

If this team has their annual fire sale at the end of July and trades a Doumit or a Maholm, we know Nutting is largely full of it about putting out a competitive product in the near term and is more than happy to have one of the best operating incomes again in baseball.
 
February 09, 2010
Votes: -1

Belfry said:

...
I don't think I'd be too upset with a couple more trades. The team is still several years away from being seriously competitive. If Doumit, Duke, and/or Maholm are dealt for a really nice return, so be it. I've pretty much resigned myself to the fact that this rebuilding will require a lot more patience than many fans have.
 
February 09, 2010
Votes: +0

Timo said:

Mario Lemieux would have them at 162-0 this season...
but because Nutting owns the team, they'll go 20-142. BECAUSE NUTTING DOESN'T CARE ABOUT WINNING!!

I think the only way to improve the team is to fire John Russell and bring back Jim Tracy. HE'S A PROVEN WINNER!!!!

Then we need to fire NH and bring in Brian Sabean so we can trade these cheap A-ball pitchers and get Freddy Sanchez back!! HE HAS VETERAN LEADERSHIP!!

Just Kidding.

Personally, I'd like at least 73 wins. Though the W/L record is very secondary to seeing the team grow together.

 
February 09, 2010
Votes: +0

krusecontrol said:

...
re: PECOTA projecting the Pirates with a ML worst 70 wins ... since the advent of the 162-game schedule, there has never been a year when the worst ML team had as many as 70 wins (some years there were as many as 8 teams at 69 or worse).
Almost all of the years, there was at least 1 team in the 50s.
So the Pirates may end up with the worst record in the league, but it sure won't be with 70 wins.
 
February 09, 2010
Votes: +1

Anon said:

...
"We all know its coming."

Do we? I think more than any other year in the last 18, we don't really know what to expect. This team could be epic bad, or could be pretty good. I don't think they have the talent to win the division, but, I think if Doumit and Milledge fulfill their non-injury potential, Laroche and Clement move forward, Jones, Cutch and Iworm do what they have done, and then we mix in Alvarez for the last 4 months, the lineup can be pretty pesky if not downright balanced and somewhat deep. The rotation should be pretty decent, and I expect big things out of Ohlendorf and Morton (Ohlendorf because of his crazy success after his delivery change and Morton because of his very good numbers minus the Cubs debacle). The bullpen should also be solid.

This team has a lot of useful parts. I think it is without question the most talented team since 1992, save perhaps the 1999 team. Now we will see if they can come together, but there is clearly a reason to be hopeful. A lot of things must break right for them, but its not like past years where crazy, ridiculous things have to break in their favor with no bad things at all happening. There is a chance this team can win 78+ games this year, and I don't think it's completely out of the question.
 
February 09, 2010
Votes: +2

bam said:

stanson: be thankful for the yinzers
That you so cheerfully insult. If they're buying season tickets, they have every right to expect a decent team on the field and have every right to express their disappointment.

And since you're the arbiter of die-hard vs yinzer, can you educate us on how to get into the die-hard club - it seems like such a cool place to go.
 
February 11, 2010
Votes: +0

Finkster said:

...
Pat,


"but a 12-win improvement would probably be among the biggest improvements in the league, and it'd be done with a very different roster from last year and maybe even without much help from the minor leaguers closest to Pittsburgh. "

I assume your talking about the roster that started last year, not finished. We'll never know how many wins and losses the team that started last season would have recorded. A 12 game improvement from the current roster ,which is the basically the same roster (excluding the bullpen) that finished last year, would a miracle. Who knows? It could happen. Laroche has a full year under his belt. Cutch has some experience. Garret Jones may continue to hit. Doumit may be healthy and productive. Some of Cedeno's developing pop from the Latin leagues carries over. I man is solid at 2nd and gets on base.If Millege is healthy and hitting. 20 home runs from 1st base. A productive rotation and solid bullpen . Why not 75 wins? A lot of if's though.
 
February 17, 2010
Votes: +0

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