ContactQuestions? Comments? Tips? Email: WHYGAVS [at] gmail [dot] com WHYGAVS? PollSearchBest of WHYGAVSThe Garrett Mackowiak ExperienceWhy I can't stay away from the ballpark Super Bowl XL The Pirates/Office Space Comparison Pirates and Royals: LIVEBLOG One Craig Wilson Logo History Masumi Kuwata Elimination Challenge Letter to the Nuttings Moving Day WHYGAVS Goes to Camden Yards WHYGAVS Night Photo Essay Why's he calling me meat? I'm the one driving a Porsche In the Canyon 16 years  |
Cory
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... I was watching a piece on one of the espn station a couple days ago that had one of the nerds from baseball prospectus on (I call them nerds because they are admittedly so, not because I don't love them or their site). He was basically saying that statistically the Pirates are covering by far the most ground in play in the league, and way more than they did last year, backing up your point that our defense is making our pitchers look great. I doubt they can keep up at their current level, but there is no reason to think there should be a major dropoff in the "effort" department soon, which should be promising for the season. |
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Carnegie Chip
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... Obviously we're in for a huge slump then because everybody knows we stink defensively. DORKUS or whatever bogus made up stat measures outfield defense clearly states Nate McLouth is a lousy CFer. And everybody knows Nyjer Morgan is horrible because sometimes he takes 4 steps to get to a pop up instead of 2. Also, Jack Wilson has long been overrated by all those many many people saying he was an excellent defensive SS. And don't get me started on Freddy. Yep, it's a House of Cards. I guess I'll have to enjoy it while it lasts. |
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Jeff Dudash
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... Can't the same argument made for Nate McCloth's defense be made for the Pirates' low strikeout total? Notably: people look at the statistics and say "Nate wasn't a good defensive CFer because he has a very mediocre range rating." Of course, we argued that range is a bad stat. A ball smoked into CF counts the same as a can-of-corn. i.e. bad pitching = bad defense. In this instance, we're suggesting the Bucs can't keep it up because we let teams put more balls in play, and eventually they'll fall in more frequently. But -- somewhat similar to McClouth -- the stats don't tell the whole story. Are the Bucs pitchers really giving up a lot of hard hit balls right now? I don't think so. I can't prove it with statistics, but anecdotally I haven't seen a lot of rockets that just happen to be hit at guys (i.e. some of Karstens' starts last year). Our walk and HBP totals are low, too. Isn't it possible that we're just doing a good job of pitching to contact? One final thought: keep in mind that the Bucs lead the league in quality starts. On almost all teams, bullpens strike out batters at a much higher frequency than the starters. It would stand to reason that -- if the Bucs' bullpen is pitching less than other teams -- we'd also have less strikeouts. |
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Jeff Dudash
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... pitching to contact very well? Final thought: the Pirates lead the league in quality starts. On most teams, the bullpen strikes out batters with a much higher frequency than the starters. So if the Bucs use their releivers less than everyone else, doesn't it stand to reason that we'd have less strikeouts? |
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Nate
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... That's an interesting point. I was interested in finding out the answer myself, so I took a look at the batted ball data against our pitchers at FanGraphs.com. According to that site, Ohlendorf has been doing pretty much what you want him to. He's got a high ground ball percentage and a low line-drive percentage, which is what you want from a sinker guy. His GB/FB ratio is 1.74 a sign that he's keeping that sinker low. He's probably due for a correction by virtue of his propensity ot give up homers, but he's showing good progress. Maholm is the most interesting one. He's definitely a pitch-to-contact type of guy, and he seems to do a very good job of getting batted balls to do exactly what he wants them to. His line drive percentage is average, and his ground ball percentage is lower than Ohlendorf's, though he maintains a good 1.43 GB/FB ratio. The telling thing is that he has a 32.6% fly ball percentage, and all but 0.5% of those never leave the infield. Maholm has the best chance of maintaining his pace if he keeps that up, because he won't give up many homers and he's keeping the ball in the area with the most defenders. Duke is not getting hit very hard right now. His ratios are just about even, but his line drive percentage is pretty low. Considering that liners are the thing that's killed Duke these past few years, that's an encouraging sign. Karstens is due for a major correction. Expect him to start sucking really soon, but then, none of us expected him to be any good. Not a lot can be gleaned for Snell by looking at this data, because he's not a contact guy. If he's going to be successful, it's going to be by striking out hitters. All of his batted ball data is pretty much league average right now. Now, there are two caveats to all of this positive talk. 1. The Pirates as a staff have the lowest BABIP in the league by a large margin at .251. As I'm sure you've heard, the average is .300. It's possible that with all the contact pitchers this staff has, we can maintain somewhere around .280, but .251 is just not sustainable. These guys WILL start getting hit. 2. With the exception of Grabow and Capps, the bullpen is all getting hit pretty hard. Meek has only pitched to two batters, so that's not nearly enough to get any reliable data on him, and he may improve the 'pen by his presence. Craig Hansen can also keep up his current pace, but that pace isn't really very good. The rest of these guys are getting hit hard and taken deep, and those hits will start falling and leaving the park soon. |
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Nate
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... and all but 0.5% of those never leave the infield. Maholm has the best chance of maintaining his pace if he keeps that up, because he won't give up many homers and he's keeping the ball in the area with the most defenders. Duke is not getting hit very hard right now. His ratios are just about even, but his line drive percentage is pretty low. Considering that liners are the thing that's killed Duke these past few years, that's an encouraging sign. Karstens is due for a major correction. Expect him to start sucking really soon, but then, none of us expected him to be any good. Not a lot can be gleaned for Snell by looking at this data, because he's not a contact guy. If he's going to be successful, it's going to be by striking out hitters. All of his batted ball data is pretty much league average right now. Now, there are two caveats to all of this positive talk. 1. The Pirates as a staff have the lowest BABIP in the league by a large margin at .251. As I'm sure you've heard, the average is .300. It's possible that with all the contact pitchers this staff has, we can maintain somewhere around .280, but .251 is just not sustainable. These guys WILL start getting hit. 2. With the exception of Grabow and Capps, the bullpen is all getting hit pretty hard. Meek has only pitched to two batters, so that's not nearly enough to get any reliable data on him, and he may improve the 'pen by his presence. Craig Hansen can also keep up his current pace, but that pace isn't really very good. The rest of these guys are getting hit hard and taken deep, and those hits will start falling and leaving the park soon. |
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Nate
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... 1. The Pirates as a staff have the lowest BABIP in the league by a large margin at .251. As I'm sure you've heard, the average is .300. It's possible that with all the contact pitchers this staff has, we can maintain somewhere around .280, but .251 is just not sustainable. These guys WILL start getting hit. 2. With the exception of Grabow and Capps, the bullpen is all getting hit pretty hard. Meek has only pitched to two batters, so that's not nearly enough to get any reliable data on him, and he may improve the 'pen by his presence. Craig Hansen can also keep up his current pace, but that pace isn't really very good. The rest of these guys are getting hit hard and taken deep, and those hits will start falling and leaving the park soon. |
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JerryG
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... Interesting subject, here's how each of the teams with the fewest strikeouts in the NL faired in ERA for the last 14 seasons: 2008. Cardinals 7th in ERA 2007. Nationals 10th in ERA 2006. Rockies 13th in ERA 2005. Braves 6th in ERA 2002-2004. Rockies 16th in ERA 2001. Pirates 15th in ERA 2000. Brewers 10th in ERA 1999. Marlins 12th in ERA 1998. Diamondbacks 14th in ERA 1996-1997. Rockies 14th in ERA 1995. Giants 13th in ERA It's certainly not a death sentence as the 96 Rockies, 97 Rockies, 05 Braves and 08 Cardinals all had winning seasons and the 05 Braves won the division. However once we're in to June and July, it's not likely they will be able to keep this up. |
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Ryan D
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... The number of free passes is a big deal too. Last season the Pirates gave up the second most walks in MLB. Now they're doing a lot better, giving up 11th fewest. |
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Bishop
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re:On most teams, the bullpen strikes out batters with a much higher frequency than the starters. So if the Bucs use their releivers less than everyone else, doesn't it stand to reason that we'd have less strikeouts? Interesting theory, so I did a little digging. The top three NL pitching staffs for K's are Chicago, Atlanta and San Francisco; see their K/9 breakdown between SP and RP (I threw in the Pirates as well for comparison). Chicago: 9.4/9 for SP, 7.6/9 for RP Atlanta: 8.1/9 for SP, 10.0/9 for RP San Francisco: 9.2/9 for SP, 7.3/9 for RP Pittsburgh: 4.4/9 for SP, 7.0/9 for RP The numbers are inconclusive; two have better SP, while two have better RP. I'd love to do the entire National League, but work calls. I might try later tonight if I have time. |
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Bishop
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... Additional information as relating to my previous post. # of bullpen innings for each of those 4 teams: Pittsburgh: 47 1/3 Chicago: 52 Atlanta: 51 1/3 San Francisco: 53 We do have fewer bullpen innings, but not by much below those teams. |
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ndbrian
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... Perhaps we're being successful exactly because we're not geting strikeouts. More strikeouts lead to higher pitch counts which lead to more innings by a shaky bullpen which leads to more fatigue by said shaky bullpen which leads to more injuries which leads to more |Romulo! |
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a guest
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... Totally off the topic, but I drove an hour out of my way on Sunday on the way back from Charleston (for a wedding) to D.C. to see Lynchburg play at Kinston. Thanks Pedro for getting the golden sombrero. I'm not sure he even fouled a ball off to be honest. He swings hard at fastballs..but he's not close to hitting even bad off speed pitches. I hope his development will be swift..but based on a very limited sample size, I'd be shocked to see him in AAA before 2011. Jordy Mercer, on the other hand swings well and is physically a very big kid. I have much higher hopes for him than I previously did. |
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Bishop
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... If Zach Duke strikes out 9 per game, that's a minimum of 27 pitches thrown necessary to accomplish that. I read earlier today that the Pirates were averaging around 15 pitches per inning, so by that measure, Zach would be getting 3 innings worth of outs for less than 2 innings worth of pitches, if that makes sense. That is fairly economical. It isn't the strikeouts so much as it is running up counts, walking guys and going full on batter after batter; they've done a good job at limiting walks so far, but it remains to be seen if they can keep that up. Getting double-plays helps to keep pitch counts low as well, since it's a two-fer, but guys have to be on base for that to happen. |
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ndbrian
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... I see what you're saying, but across the board, strikeout pitchers make more pitches than groundball guys. Only in extremely rare cases does a guy strike out on three pitches if for no other reason than pitchers usually waste an 0-2 offering. Plus, some of the balls are used as a way of setting up other pitches intended to induce contact (changeups for instance are rarely used to induce swings and misses and much more often used to get popups). So expanding your math to 4 pitcher per person and you have 36 pitches as opposed to the 30 they now average. The math evens out much more. As a former coach, I've always encouraged my pitchers to not shy away from pitching to contact..just do so in a way that keeps hitters off balance. |
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a guest
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Jeff Dudash You and I are on the same page. I can't prove it, and don't try, but better pitching = easier outs. Sure, the D is probably better, but the fact is we're getting good pitching and it shows in the numbers. Sure, there's a correction coming, but I'll disagree that the overall level of success (read: number of quality starts) is necessarily unsustainable simply because we're not striking guys out. |
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a guest
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... (Pat, Why am I anonymous? Why do I keep getting logged out when I don't log out. Can't I just be logged in for life? Jesus Christ this is annoying. (See if you can guess who I am without checking my IP address)). |
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azibuck
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... And another thing, team total K is irrelevant. Each individual is relevant. We also don't have a Lincecum or Harden type to bump up the number. I don't mean to say "inflate", just to note that the top K teams have at least one wildly strong strikeout guy. Maholm especially, but also Snell, is striking out less/9 than their career averages. Duke's rate is up, but not really that much. I don't expect that we'll be last in K for the year. We won't challenge the top 10, but again, that's irrelevant. |
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